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21 July 2016
Doug Crawford, CEO of My Home Move, comments on today’s HMRC property transaction figures for June
“June’s figures show a market returning to health after a very quiet April and May, which was due to investors doing business earlier in the year to avoid the stamp duty changes. While the number of property transactions remain below the levels seen a year earlier, a 4.9% increase between May and June is very encouraging. My Home Move’s own data suggests that the number of completions in June 2016 was actually 2.7% higher than in June 2015.*
“The June increase shows that the property market mostly shook off the uncertainty from the Brexit referendum at the end of the month. This reflects our experience – most purchases went ahead without any issues. The big question now is what the impact will be for the rest of the year. While this is less clear, our view is that the fundamentals of the property market are strong enough that there will not be a significant impact. There have been anecdotal reports of a slight slowdown in July from the estate agents we work with, but it is impossible to tell how much of this is actually Brexit related and how much is down to a normal summer slowdown. The picture will only start to be clearer in September after the holiday season.
“In the long term, strong fundamentals will continue to support a prosperous housing market. High levels of demand for both rental and owner-occupied accommodation will drive transaction figures upwards, and our recently published forecast predicts the number of property transactions will rise by 7% this year and by 20% by 2020.**”
* My Home Move management information on completions of residential property transactions it advised on in June 2016 compared to June 2015
** Based independent econometric analysis carried out for My Home Move’s latest report, ‘Bricks and mortar in a digital world: fifteen years of the property market’ (Available on request)